Global incandescent lamp replacement huge market will open soon
2009-2012, the global lighting production compound annual growth rate is expected to reach 13.9%. 2010 $92.8 billion of global lighting market scale is almost ten times as many as in the LED industry. Caused by the global JinChan banned incandescent lamp replacement such as energy-saving lamps and 200W led Flood light will create the huge market demand.
The pain of rare earth prices become the energy-saving lamp replacement
Since this year rare earth phosphor prices nearly ten times, energy-saving lamps production cost increases. Three different schemes are the main raw material, energy-saving lamps, in three different schemes before price, at the beginning of phosphor in energy-saving light accounts for only about 10% of the cost, cost proportion of current rise to nearly 60%. To cope with the rising cost of pressure, energy-saving enterprises will continue to raise the price of a product, and accelerate the transition to 200W led Flood light . At the same time, the LED lamps and lanterns rapid decline in product prices.
LED industrial policies are becoming more and more perfect
200W led Flood light industry as emerging industry of energy conservation and environmental protection, has been the country, semiconductor lighting "1025" plan will be issued in September. Part of national standards at the same time with the LED products, LED products this year is expected to enjoy the financial subsidies, industrial lighting, commercial lighting possible a wide range.
Profit forecast and investment advice
200W led Flood light industry preferred mark for hon photoelectric and ruifeng photoelectric. Hong and 70% or more of the photoelectric products applied in the field of general lighting, and have higher and more stable gross margin, and 20% of LED commercial lighting business. Ruifeng photoelectric more than 50% products for 200W led Flood light devices. Secondly, choose the star power, zhou Ming and kept electronic science and technology, this kind of business related to 200W led Flood light company has further growth trend. Again, select the sun lighting, FeiLe acoustics, foshan lighting, etc have transformation on the basis of traditional lighting enterprise.
Risk tip One is the boom of industry below expectations, 2 it is the policy risk.
A, the main point
(1) global incandescent lamp replacement huge market has been open
Benefit the slow recovery of global economy, the ongoing urbanization and increasing the illume of the users, instead of traditional ways of lighting, as well as high efficiency and energy saving lighting the way of promotion, the global lighting market is expected to achieve sustainable growth, 2009-2012 global lighting production compound annual growth rate is expected to reach 13.9%. 2010 $92.8 billion of global lighting market scale is almost ten times as many as in the led industry ($9.6 billion). Can foresee, caused by the global JinChan banned incandescent lamp replacement lighting will create huge market demand, and is undoubtedly the most competitive and efficient LED green lighting light source.
(2) the rare earth price become the energy-saving lamps instead of pain Since this year rare earth phosphor prices nearly ten times, energy-saving lamps production cost increases. Energy-saving lamp accessories capillary in three different schemes of main raw materials, rare earth accounted for the proportion of raw materials up to 75%. Before the price of three different schemes, phosphor in energy-saving light accounts for only about 10% of the cost, and price of phosphor, its proportion in energy-saving lamp cost rise to nearly 60%. To cope with the rising cost of pressure, energy-saving enterprises will continue to raise the price of a product, and accelerate the transition to 200W led Flood light .
(3) 200W led Flood light performance is increasing day by day
With the reduction of sapphire substrate and the global MOCVD in succession, the 200W led Flood light chip, device price rapid decline, at the same time, the expansion of the scale of industry also has reduced the prices of other raw materials, makes the price dropped to speed up the LED lamps and lanterns, LED products price is higher and higher, quick start has the basic conditions of commercial lighting. In addition, exports have become the driving force for the rapid growth in the 200W led Flood light industry in China. Led lamps and lanterns exports reached us $2010 in 3.41 billion, an increase of 63.3%, more than exports lighting industry growth rate of 31.7%.
(4) the LED industrial policies are becoming more and more perfect
The 200W led Flood light industry as emerging industry of energy conservation and environmental protection, has been the country, to encourage and promote the healthy and rapid development of industrial, has gradually formed a perfect policy system. Energy conservation and emission reduction in China "1025" program of seven strategic emerging industry, its important part - semiconductor lighting "1025" plan will be issued in September. At the same time, along with LED products, the promulgation of the national standard of LED products is expected to bring into national green lighting project, this year and enjoy the financial subsidies, industrial lighting, commercial lighting may start a wide range.
(5) investment strategy: the layout of the 200W led Flood light market segment
200W led Flood light industry preferred mark is hong photoelectric and ruifeng photoelectric. Hong and 70% or more of the photoelectric products applied in the field of general lighting, and have higher and more stable gross margin, and have a fairly large LED commercial lighting business. Ruifeng photoelectric more than 50% products for 200W led Flood light devices. Secondly, choose the star power, zhou Ming and kept electronic science and technology. The companies have the related to 200W led Flood light business, and further expand, the growth trend. Again, select the sun lighting, FeiLe acoustics, foshan lighting traditional lighting enterprise, such as in the 200W led Flood light business laid a good foundation, has the good channel superiority, but short-term facing energy-saving lamps the pressure of rising costs. Second, LED light will light up the world
(a) LED industry will continue to maintain growth trend
From 1962, Nick HolonyakJr general electric (GE) of the engineer. Development based on GaAs (GaAs) issued the first red visible light-emitting diodes (leds) (lighted - EmittingDiode, or LED), LED is not a young technology; As an industry, however, LED industry development in the late 1990 s, originates from a series of problems restricting the development of LED for many years been solved step by step: in 1994, the day and the village of chemical industry (Nichia) the second (Shuji Nakamura) successfully created based on the wide bandgap semiconductor gallium nitride (GaN) and indium gallium nitride (InGaN), the blue LED; White LED is immediately available, LED the efficacy of rapidly beyond the traditional incandescent lamp, and gradually to the mainstream of energy-saving fluorescent lamps light source approximation; In 1999, the power of the 1 w LED commercialization, LED industry which started more than 10 years of high-speed growth process. The first stage: display backlighting, small size. Enter at the beginning of this century, with the large increase in mobile phone penetration, LED ushered in the first rapid growth: the first is the application in the field of mobile phone keyboard backlighting/instructions, began in 2003 LED is widely used in mobile phone camera flash/LCD display backlighting; As mobile portable devices into the stable growth, the small power LED device costs continue to drop, and the efficacy of continuous improvement to reduce the single piece of LCD panel LED demand, the growth of the mobile phone application after 2006 power gradually slowed, industry growth rate reduced. The second stage: large size back light applications. Along with the size of the LED display backlighting cost gradually to the traditional CCFL (cold cathode fluorescent lamp), alternative increasingly obvious advantages, the LED backlight penetration in the size of a laptop increase sharply, and began to rapidly to the large size of LCD display and LCD TV penetration. 2009 is the first year of the start of large size LED backlighting. Due to the large size display backlight LED used no matter from the quantity still far outweigh the mobile portable equipment on the power, LED industry ushered in an unprecedented high speed growth. The third stage: 200W led Flood light applications. According to DIGITIMES forecast, the 200W led Flood light of high brightness LED market share (by using single number) will be increased from 4.2% in 2009 to 23.5% in 2013, while high brightness LED market is now the largest growth power, large size backlight application market share will peak in 2012 (39%), after began to gradually decline, 200W led Flood light will be after 2012 domino size backlighting become high brightness LED industry the main driving force of growth. In application of the LED device number to calculate, 2011-2015, 200W led Flood light compound growth rate will reach 97.4%. 200W led Flood light is expected to pick up stick display backlighting become next stage LED industry the main driving force of growth.
(2) three advantages: 200W led Flood light efficacy, service life, environmental protection
LED since birth, it revealed the potential as a semiconductor lighting to replace traditional lighting. As a kind of through the electroluminescent way of lighting, LED natural has a high energy conversion efficiency, long life, light color is rich, compact size, and many other advantages. Before major breakthroughs were made in photosynthetic efficiency of white LED, LED the use of the limited to single color more instructions/display purpose applications, however, after nearly 10 years of development, accompanied by a decline in the cost of, the improvement of efficacy, light quality and improvement of the product life, LED has become a contender to replace traditional lighting.
LED light source with high direction. When comparing the efficacy advantages of 200W led Flood light , LED light source must also be taken into account the characteristics of highly directional, because flux more concentrated, through the efficient design of the optical parts, in lighting applications also flux LED bulb/than fluorescent lamps can be produced in a particular area higher intensity of illumination, so as to further consolidate its advantage of efficacy.
LED another big advantage of green environmental protection. And current replacement, compared to traditional fluorescent lamp lighting the strongest competitors in addition to the efficacy and life expectancy has an upper, another big advantage of LED is green environmental protection. Because fluorescent tubes containing mercury, if can't use safe recycling, the huge pollution and damage to the environment, it has become the current widely the biggest hidden danger of fluorescent lamps.
In addition, the 200W led Flood light is with compact size, open time is short, seismic no stroboscopic, and many other advantages.
Three, global incandescent lamp replacement huge market has been open
(1) global disabled white fabric light to enter the countdown
Edison in 1879, the invention of the incandescent lamp, led the human way of lighting revolution; Low cost and simple and practical structure, and more than 100 years later still widely used around the world. With the economic and social development of mankind, the lighting in the proportion of energy consumption is more and more big, in 2005, the global lighting of the total amount of light for 134.7 billion lumens hours, the total lighting costs $365 billion, about 1.2% of GDP in the world,
Equivalent to 19% of global electricity consumption, the consumption of more than 1.5 billion tons of oil and 560 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions. Due to the energy conversion efficiency is low (90% of the energy is transformed into heat energy), along with the energy crisis and energy conservation and emission reduction has become a consensus, various countries speed up the process of legislation banned the production and use of incandescent lamp, at the same time vigorously promotion of energy efficient lighting to the traditional lighting. Illuminate the human society in one hundred incandescent lamp finally will have the end of the day.
(2) alternative huge market space Benefit the slow recovery of global economy, the ongoing urbanization and increasing the illume of the users, instead of traditional ways of lighting, as well as high efficiency and energy saving lighting the way of promotion, the global lighting market is expected to achieve sustainable growth, 2009-2012 global lighting production compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is expected to reach 13.9%. The size of the global lighting market in 2010 ($92.8 billion) is almost ten times as many as in the LED industry ($9.6 billion). Can foresee, caused by the global JinChan banned incandescent lamp replacement lighting will create huge market demand, and is undoubtedly the most competitive and efficient LED green lighting light source.
Is lighting market in North America, the United States and Canada -- incandescent lamp JinChan disable plan has been a point of no return, and incandescent lamp as the formation of long-term use and low cost, still occupies a considerable proportion in the lighting market. North America in 2012-2014, gradually banned incandescent lamp (above 100 watts 2012 disabled, disabled more than 75 w, 2013, 2014, 40-60 tile above disable), but at present whether incandescent light bulbs or incandescent lamps and lanterns, are firmly occupy the position of the lighting market quantities first. Due to the lighting equipment in 2011-2014 between most will be replaced by a new type of high efficiency and energy saving light source, produced by the alternative lighting market demand will be very large. North America at present incandescent lamp, halogen lamp lighting according to the amount of flux calculation is about 5 trillion lumens, if half replaced with LED, according to the us department of energy solid state lighting research and development roadmap from 2010 to 2015 LED lamps and lanterns is average price of usd 25 / lumen, will produce output value of 62.5 billion dollars.
(3) of global 200W led Flood light to replace incandescent lamp of has been opened
Japan LED bulb sales for the first time more than incandescent lamp. Expensive electricity, strong consciousness of energy conservation and environmental protection, and the early implementation of the end products of subsidies, Japan has the good condition of the jinniu 200W led Flood light market. Five traditional lighting manufacturers sharp, Toshiba, NEC, mitsubishi and panasonic actively involved in the 200W led Flood light market, constantly in the retail channel launched in overseas OEM way production more and more low price of 200W led Flood light products. To replace the traditional light bulb 40 w global 5-6 w LED ball bulb (450-485 lumens) as an example, the retail price from $40 in March 2010 to June 2011 the minimum retail price $18, fall 55%, with less than $40 per thousand lumens. In a declining market price and the earthquake in Japan in March around the power brownouts measures and subsidy policy, LED light bulb market was detonated. According to GFK that Service survey data of Japan, June 2011 LED bulbs in all light bulb in the sales ratio is 43.5%, and for the first time more than incandescent bulbs. In the worst of the restriction of electricity area reached 50%, and the proportion is rising. LEDinside estimated 2011 Japan LED bulb sales will reach 24 million, more than 71% growth last year, permeability and estimate can be mentioned to 25%, estimate the size of the market could reach 709 million dollars. As countries ban policy and environmental protection consciousness of the incandescent light bulb, LEDinside estimated 2011 200W led Flood light permeability can be more than 9%.
South Korea continues in the LED industry has. South Korea panel manufacturer seize the opportunity of LED backlight applied to large size of the rapid growth of the global LED industry growth, great strong finishes. South Korean government in 2015 200W led Flood light popularity's target of 15%, therefore formulated a series of universal development plan, including the business institutions in public, large buildings and commercial lighting situations using 200W led Flood light to give high subsidies or cheap financing. At present, the prevalence rate of LED business institutions in the public has reached 8%. Korea LED enterprises under the full support of the government and industry associations active overseas, composed of enterprise alliance to Russia, Malaysia, Vietnam and other countries and regions, for billions and billions of the 200W led Flood light of the scale of export plan.
The United States, the world's largest lighting market is expected to begin in 2012. 200W led Flood light light source of the energy star standards by the end of 2010 has been implemented, such as GE due also began in the retail channel launched 200W led Flood light products. Though LED lamps and fluorescent lamp is about 10 times the price gap, but with the rapid decline of the LED cost, according to the forecast, IMS of 200W led Flood light market is expected to begin in 2012, to 2015 accounted for 1/3 of the number of lamps and lighting market, sales of 3/4. J.
Europe: energy saving high protection consciousness, incandescent lamp to disable the climax is imminent. Because of the European energy conservation and environmental protection awareness is relatively mature, the acceptance of the new energy-saving environmental protection products is higher, and of the European Union -- incandescent lamp climax is coming, governments in the fields of energy saving lamps and LED lamps have subsidy scheme (BuTieE reached 30% ~ 55%) the price of a product. At present some of the major countries in Europe supermarket has started to have below 10 w LED bulbs and lamps products sales.
Four, rare earth prices become the energy-saving lamps instead of pain
Energy-saving lamps because of high photosynthetic efficiency, energy saving, good color, long service life etc, and in the field of lighting occupy most of the market. Use energy-saving light than ordinary incandescent lamp power saving 60% 80%, long service life and 4-6 times; Energy-saving lamps in halogen powder fluorescent lamp energy saving 30% 50%, on the basis of color index increased by 15% - 40%, increase the service life of more than 3 times. However, since 2010, rare earth prices continue to rise, among them, the rare earth phosphor half a year or 10 times as high as.
(1) China's energy-saving light industry occupies the world first place
At present, our country is the world's lighting products production the first big country, in 2009, our country incandescent lamp output 2.73 billion, fluorescent yield 3.5 billion, among them, the energy-saving production about 3 billion, accounting for more than 85% of the fluorescent lamp production. So, faced with the huge stock market and incremental market, worldwide, eliminate incandescent lamp, the promotion of energy-saving measures for the implementation of the acceleration of fluorescent lamps and halogen powder replacement, will promote the rapid development of energy-saving lamps production industry in China. Predicts 2013, our country incandescent lamp output will decline to 1.42 billion only, energy-saving lamps in fluorescent accounted for more than will rise to 92%, yield nearly 7 billion only, is 2.25 times the current production of energy-saving lamps.
(2) three different schemes is the necessary foundation of the energy-saving lamp of raw materials
Current global incandescent lamp, fluorescent lamp, and application of energy-saving lamps halogen powder proportion about 4:3:1 at present, our country is about 8:9:1. Energy-saving lamp is the most mature technology of environmental protection and energy saving lighting products, is the current lighting field implementation of energy saving and emission reduction, accelerate the elimination of incandescent lamp, energy saving lighting is the main application and popularization. Energy-saving lamps tube in accordance with the phosphor is divided into: mixed powder, halogen powder, three colors. Halogen powder life in 3000 ~ 4000 hours, and mixed powder life in 4000 ~ 6000 hours, and three colors in more than 8000 hours.
The energy-saving lamps mainly add three different schemes. Three different schemes of rare earth (commonly known as luminous powder) respectively is red pink, green, blue powder according to certain proportion. It solves the halogen phosphate phosphor long-standing efficacy and colour rendering couldn't improve the contradiction at the same time. Rare earth the characteristics of three different schemes are spectrum with narrow, light energy is more concentrated, and under the short-wave ultraviolet excitation high stability, high temperature properties, more suitable for high load with the fluorescent lamp and various single the compact fluorescent lamp, become a new generation of light with phosphor material.
Generally, rare earth in three different schemes, hongfen for Eu activation of yttrium oxide (is: Eu, green powder for cerium, Tb activation of aluminate (MgAl11O19: Ce, Tb), blue powder for low Eu activation of barium aluminate magnesium (BaMg2Al16O27: Eu, hongfen in rare earth content is 100%, among them yttrium oxide (94%), oxidation of Eu (6%); Green powder of rare earth content is 23%, which caused by terbium oxide content of 8%, cerium oxide content is 15%. Three kinds of powder according to certain proportion mixing, can get a different color temperature (2700 ~ 6500 k), and the corresponding lamp luminous efficiency could reach 80-100 lm/W, color index for 85 ~ 90. Generally speaking, the higher the green powder content, blue powder content is lower, the lamp luminous efficiency is higher. In addition, blue powder increased, color temperature high; Slacken, colour temperature decreased.
(3) the price of rare earth, energy-saving lamp cost challenged
Rare earth tightening for, causing prices to rise. May 10, the state council on promoting the sustainable and healthy development of rare earth industry several opinions of formal, put forward to promote the rare earth industry merger and reorganization, greatly reduce the number of mining and smelting rare-earth separation enterprise. Upstream mid-may, Inner Mongolia autonomous region issued by the rare earth enterprise integrate work out plan, request completed within half a month, a total of 35 enterprises face are integrated or the fate of the closing. In June 26, the state council on further promoting sound and rapid development of economy and society in Inner Mongolia several opinions of the stressed that must strengthen the Inner Mongolia rare earth resources integration and reserves. So rare earth prices were higher in the second quarter.
Since 2011, with three different schemes of cerium oxide, yttrium oxide, caused by terbium oxide and eu oxide price rise significantly. Cerium oxide by 34000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, in the middle of August up to 180000 yuan/ton, or 4.3 times; Yttrium oxide at the beginning of 48400 yuan/ton, in the middle of August up to 480000 yuan/ton, or 9 times; Caused by terbium oxide at the beginning of 2750 yuan/ton, in the middle of August up to 21000 yuan/ton, or 6.6 times; Oxidation of eu early 3015 yuan/ton, mid August rose to 28000 yuan/ton, or 8.3 times.
Basic of rare earth material price rise considerably, increased in rare earth production cost of the main application products of raw materials, rare earth phosphor price this year ten times a rise of nearly half a year. Significant than energy-saving materials of rare earth, rare earth phosphor after prices, the cost increases in energy-saving lamps. Energy-saving lamp accessories capillary in three different schemes of main raw materials, rare earth accounted for the proportion of raw materials up to 75%. Before the price of three different schemes, phosphor in energy-saving light accounts for only 10% of the cost, and price of phosphor, its proportion in the cost of energy-saving lamps rose to 60%.
By 20 w fluorescent lamps capillary, for example, will need about three different schemes 1 g, at the beginning of the total production costs about two dollars, the phosphor cost less than $0.3, a hair tube produce price of 3.5 yuan, gross margin to 70%. At present, don't consider other factors such as price of raw materials, labor costs and the appreciation of the renminbi, phosphor cost to 2.5 yuan, the total production cost to 4.2 yuan, assuming that the factory prices 50%, the price is 5.25 yuan, only about a 25% gross margin. A capillary Maori dropped from 1.5 yuan to 1 yuan, profit margins dropped more than 30%.
(4) the price to deal with rising costs, shuffle and transformation in parallel
To cope with rapidly rising costs, and the sun lighting, leishi lighting, foshan lighting, such as energy-saving lamps manufacturers are different levels of prices in the first half of the year, the second half will increase continuously, in response to the cost of year-on-year rise sharply, in spite of this, energy-saving lamps still affected by the profitability of the enterprise.
Phosphor price especially for in three different schemes of low-pressure mercury vapor fluorescent lamps and other related products, such as single ended three colors energy-saving fluorescent lamp series, T4, T5, T8 double end three colors fluorescent lamp series product the production enterprise to produce a lot of influence. The phosphor production enterprise, capillary production enterprise, energy-saving lamps production enterprises and other relevant industries and lighting industry have a great impact. Phosphor inflation this year, will make the whole energy-saving lamps facing the industry reshuffle, many small and medium energy-saving lamps such as zhejiang, guangdong export enterprises have closed up, part of the enterprise is facing production, production. Under the influence of national rare earth industry policy, relevant departments of the state in the face of rare earth boom market, take the market operation policy direction is greater than the model, so there is little chance of rare earth slashed prices in the future, energy-saving lamps enterprise shuffle transformation and unavoidable.
To cope with the high pressure of rare earth prices rise rapidly, many traditional energy-saving lamps enterprise began to transition to 200W led Flood light and to speed up the development of 200W led Flood light is more strength of traditional lighting enterprise development road. In leishi lighting, for example, the chairman of the board of directors WuChangJiang said that although the 200W led Flood light products will use of rare earth phosphor, but its dosage compared with energy-saving lamps don't mention it, and for the price of the chip has far offset the cost of phosphor price increase pressure, rare earth prices is an opportunity for the development of LED. Leishi lighting energy-saving lamps account for 70% of sales at present, the future will speed up the adjustment of its product line and 200W led Flood light products this year income accounted for leishi revenue will be increased from 2% last year to 5%, the next five years, 200W led Flood light products income our revenue proportion will reach 50%.