The national development and reform commission has released the China eliminated incandescent lamp map (draft) ". According to the draft, by 2016, it will completely eliminate use normal lighting incandescent lamp. China at the end of the road map out incandescent lamp will be finalized in October 1, officially released, will be divided into five steps gradually banned imports and sales of incandescent lamp, selection target products for general lighting incandescent lamp, not including reflective incandescent lamp, spot light, decorative light and other types of incandescent lamp and special use incandescent lamp. In the past 130 years as human beings of light incandescent lamp now will be withdrawn from the market, it took the baton is lighting effect is much better and more save electric energy saving lamp.
200W led Flood light source technology is listed as strategic emerging industries, the country from a strategic height, so much because of semiconductor lighting industry development on energy saving of the great significance. It is understood that the incandescent lamp of electro-optical conversion efficiency not more than 10%, energy-saving lamps lighting conversion efficiency is at least two times of incandescent lamp, if in the all incandescent lamp replacement for energy-saving lamps, in power saving 48 billion kilowatt hour, be equivalent to reduce carbon emissions is 48 million tons, energy-saving and emission reduction potential is tremendous.
From the national semiconductor lighting project research and industry alliance data show that, in 2010, the overall size of the energy-saving lamps market reached 100 billion yuan. It is estimated that by 2015, energy-saving lamps market scale will reach 500 billion yuan, the year compound growth will reach 38%, from a cost point of view, it is generally supposed LED lamp, for example, in the future ten years, is expected to improve brightness can again twenty times, and the cost will drop to the existing 1/10. Industry experts said that as incandescent lamp selection step speeding up, the global energy saving lamp investment market will have a piece of news. According to the relevant authorities to predict, 2015 China 200W led floodlighting output will reach 500 billion yuan, occupy the mainland general lighting market more than 30%.
High-profile LED industry chain
As a kind of green 200W led Flood light source, its application range is very wide, at present, in our country the main application areas including LED displays, traffic lights, automobile lamp, LCD backlight, mobile phone keyboard, digital camera flash light, decorative lighting, street light and general lighting, etc.
LED industry has long industrial chain, each field of technical characteristics and capital characteristic difference is very big, from upstream to downstream, middle to industry into the threshold gradually reduce. Upstream epitaxial wafer has the typical characteristics of high technology, high capital, upstream chip also has high technical content, capital relatively dense characteristics, middle package in the technical content and capital investment should be lower, and the use of the technology of products and the minimum capital investment. The national development and reform commission statistics show that China 200W led floodlighting chip, packaging and application value for the ratio of 1:9:22, the upstream enterprise nearly 70, packaging enterprise more than 1000, and the application of more than 3000 enterprises. Downstream 200W led floodlighting application industry, already is the capital gathered.
The personage inside course of study thinks LED chip, related electronic components, LED energy-saving lamp products there is a huge investment opportunities, after a long time of adjustment, valuations have comparative advantage.
Industrial securities LED industry analysts long-term LED industry development, think "1025" will be the development of the industry value chain, the golden age of high-end packaging and downstream application link. Industrial securities that LED packaging is 200W led floodlighting industry chain throat, will have a development opportunity, this link will appear in the modularization trend; In 200W led flood lighting applications, cut into LED industry chain traditional lighting enterprise with optical design field, the accumulation of the 200W led flood lighting lamps and lanterns link has certain advantages. Market participants generally optimistic about a certain scale, has the independent brand of 200W led floodlighting lamps and lanterns production enterprise, the scale and channel is the fierce competition in the downstream of the advantage of winning.
ShenYin universal securities in the end of last year have asserted that, with the advancement of energy conservation and emissions reduction, belongs to the 200W led floodlighting era is coming. In the LED packaging field, ShenYin universal securities valued countries such as star electric listed company. In addition, think good crystal science and technology because of its packaging technology technology innovation expected, also worth market focus.
An advisor photoelectric industry researcher TianBoSheng think, in 200W led floodlighting industry energy saving benefit of the listed companies, Switzerland abundant photoelectric engaged in LED high-end packaging business, is the present domestic third largest SMDLED packaging manufacturers, gross profit margin level is located in the forefront of the industry, in the lighting field has many patents, has unique advantages, capacity expansion rapidly, estimated in the future development prospect is very good; Foshan lighting in the lighting business strength strong, profit ability, in the 200W led flood lighting products also achieved significant breakthrough, related technical occupies the leading level. Expected with energy-saving lamps and LED the market further, foshan lighting future growth potential is still strong.
Expert analysis, in the LED industry chain, the upstream industry is a capital intensive and high technical content, high profit, and the link in the upper reaches of the core patent technology concentrated in Japan Nichia (date and), Cree (American families sharp), Osram (Germany Osram) a few overseas giant hands. In the epitaxial wafer and chip area, the United States and Japan enterprise also in the monopoly advantage. Secondly, some listed companies lack of experienced management personnel and r&d engineers and LED wafer core link and upstream areas lack of intellectual property rights, etc., therefore in the energy saving lighting and LED industry risk, investors should be paid attention to in operation should be treated with caution.
Strong individual stocks LED the market performance
At present, there are three stocks LED, photoelectricity, ShiLan micro, tongfang co, xiamen cinda, square big group, sunshine, lighting, electronic, Shanghai, China BeiLing microelectronics, foshan lighting, aucma, dried as photoelectric, Switzerland abundant photoelectricity, hon the photoelectric, chau Ming technology, autoart electronics, DE hao embellish of, our photoelectric, etc.
LED industry in addition to lighting, but also in intelligent mobile phone, tablet PC, etc in a wide range of applications. And as intelligent mobile phone, tablet PC prosperity and LED LCD TV permeability rapid ascension, LED backlight to promote short-term rapid market growth LED the main power. 2009 LED LCD TV permeability is only 3%, but the first half of 2010 quickly rose to 16%, means to quickly suit to the LED back light industry starts a new enterprise to obtain high growth kinetic energy.
With the government's support and new application drive, the China market is expected this year LED than last year increased by 23%. Due to the more widely used in LCD TV and street lighting, LED not only be made in China popular product, and is a very attractive investment fields.
In addition, the LED industry clusters and industrial base in constantly emerging, industry scale top of guangdong province as an example, huizhou families sharp, byd lighting as well as a number of investment of over 1 billion yuan LED project in guangzhou open; Germany osram in succession in guangdong, konka, skyworth, laser and so on but also to the listed company merger and acquisition, increase endowment spread, etc into LED industry; The dongguan frequently, the dongguan fuhua, high-tech and scale receives over RMB one hundred million yuan of LED backbone enterprise, and has initially formed a total scale over RMB 50 billion yuan of LED industry area.
An advisor, a senior fellow at LiYuHeng said, in the policy and market double bullish situation, a number of technical and policy has the advantages of enterprise, such as sunshine lighting, FuRi electronics, our photoelectric, xiamen will be the long-term market occupy the leading position and benefit from it.
Industrial securities in released LED industry research report argues that the current can focus on 200W led flood lighting applications and it has advantage of brand of high quality chip, etc, to maintain the industry LED the son "recommended" investment rating.
Industrial securities pointed out that, the LED industry is concerned, the product structure and the customer structure factors, make the domestic LED enterprise and LED TV backlight boom correlation degree is small, but still faces slowing demand, capacity glut hidden trouble. If the demand for them is insufficient, only has the technical strength and cost management ability, and actively develop new products in the field of application of enterprise can survive in the industry reshuffle.
Wide hair negotiable securities that, since 2011, the LED industry will enter the era of high growth. Expected from 2011 to 2012, the output value will be reached $14 billion and $20.5 billion, with the highest growth rate were 40% and 46%, LED industry into the high growth track, the second half of this year 200W led floodlighting exist the possibility of explosive growth.
Oriental securities new energy analysts ZouHui think, in recent years, on the one hand, by the state industrial policy of positive factors, especially the role of local government in landscape lighting financial subsidies, greatly stimulated the development of LED industry, and promote the LED products cost greatly reduced; On the other hand, it is the technological progress, also make the product cost drops rapidly. Therefore, the recent stock LED industry obviously got the favour of funds.